20180709前海期貨農(nóng)副產(chǎn)品半年報(bào)：食糖弱勢(shì)難逆轉(zhuǎn) 蘋果減產(chǎn)價(jià)可期
報(bào)告摘要
n? 2017/18榨季全球食糖供給寬松，印度等國(guó)增產(chǎn)幅度較大，下半年國(guó)際糖市出口壓力較大。2018/19榨季全球食糖供需平衡將相對(duì)收緊，庫(kù)存消費(fèi)比下降。
n? 根據(jù)中國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)農(nóng)村部門的預(yù)估，2018/19榨季國(guó)內(nèi)食糖產(chǎn)需缺口為452萬(wàn)噸，低于2017/18榨季的469萬(wàn)噸，假設(shè)在進(jìn)口、拋儲(chǔ)和走私量沒有明顯變化的情況下，國(guó)內(nèi)食糖供給來(lái)年將更加寬松。
n? 根據(jù)全國(guó)蘋果套袋減產(chǎn)的統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)看，2018年新果減產(chǎn)幅度在35%-40%。新年度蘋果供給較緊。
?
?? 食糖和蘋果上半年行情回顧
?? 食糖和蘋果供需狀況分析及預(yù)測(cè)
?? 總結(jié)及下半年行情展望
?? 策略推薦
Abstract
n? In 2017/18, the global sugar supply was sufficient. Countries such as India largely increased their production, and worldwide sugar market will face a greater export pressure in 2H18. The global balance of sugar supply and demand will be relatively tight, with the stocks-to-use ratio falling in 2018/19.
n? According to the MARA’s forecast, the domestic sugar production shortfall will be 4.52 million tons in 2018/19, which may be lower than the amount (4.69 million tons) in 2017/18. Assuming that there is no significant change in import, storage and smuggling, the domestic sugar supply will be more sufficient in the coming year.
n? According to the statistics, the yield reduction will be 35 percent to 40 percent in 2018, which indicates a tight supply of apple in the coming year.
?
?? Market review of sugar and apple in 1H18
?? Analysis and forecast on supply and demand of sugar and apple
?? Summary and market outlook for 2H18
?? Strategy recommendation
20180709前海期貨—農(nóng)副產(chǎn)品產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈半年報(bào)—食糖弱勢(shì)難逆轉(zhuǎn) 蘋果減產(chǎn)價(jià)可期.pdf
